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Monday, May 27, 2019

Clearing Up Some Confusion

I don't usually like hypothetical scenarios, but I don't know how else to express this.  Let's say that you have a choice of living in two different neighborhoods.  Both neighborhoods are the same size, but one has way more people in it than the other.  Both neighborhoods have the same crime rate per person, but the more crowded neighborhood has more crime incidents per year only because it has more people living in it.  In which neighborhood would you have the higher statistical probability of becoming a crime victim?

I read a thing on my news app last night but I didn't copy the link because it was really long and it mostly covered things that we already know about.  One thing, however, caught my attention, and it may explain the discrepancy between the different reports about how many asylum seekers show up for their hearings.  It seems there are two ways to apply for asylum.  One way is to check in at one of the official entry points.  There they will give you a pre-hearing interview and, if you pass that, they will schedule your asylum hearing.  It didn't say what happens to the guys who flunk the interview, but I assume they get sent back.  The guys who pass the interview also get sent back to wait for their hearing date.  I remember reading that Trump was planning to do this, but I thought he had been prevented by a court order.  Be that as it may, the article says that they have been doing it for some time, and that "thousands" are presently waiting in Mexico.  The other way is to cross the border illegally and then either surrender to, or be captured by, the Border Patrol.  Last I heard, they were doing that at a rate of over a hundred thousand a month.  All of these guys get a hearing date, and then most of them are released on the US side.  The article didn't say so, but I suspect that the ones waiting in Mexico are more likely to show up for their hearing than the ones who are released on the US side.  The ones on the US side are already in the country, where there's a  chance they can remain incognito indefinitely.  If they show up for their hearing, there's a chance they will be rejected and deported.

I'm not clear on the function of all those gravel trucks in Chicago for the parade.  Were they protecting the parade from the spectators or protecting everybody from some common threat?  It seems like, if somebody wanted to bomb the parade, they could have easily done it from one of the surrounding tall buildings.

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