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Thursday, April 30, 2020

By the Numbers

That's the point I was trying to make.  Sweden has about the same population as Michigan yet, last I heard, Michigan with their lockdown had a thousand more deaths than Sweden with no lockdown.  Of course there may be other factors at work, and I don't know what they might be, but one possibility is that somebody's numbers are not accurate.  That nice Swedish lady on TV assured us that her numbers are correct so it must be our numbers that are not accurate.  I have said previously that I am suspicious of the numbers they are feeding us.  I have no hard evidence of that, but I never said that I was positively convinced, just suspicious.

As Uncle Ken has previously pointed out, "confirmed cases" is a pretty soft number because of differences in testing, but it seems that it would be pretty hard to distort the number of deaths.  Pretty hard, but not impossible.  Old Dog has alluded to one possibility, there might be a difference between dying by the virus and dying with the virus.  As I understand it, the virus itself seldom kills anybody, it's when complications like pneumonia set in that virus patients' conditions becomes critical.  The last time Michigan had a spike in deaths, the authorities admitted that it was probably attributable to the fact that they had recently begun testing dead people "after the fact".  So if a guy dies of pneumonia or a heart attack, and his body tests positive for corona, is that counted as death by corona, and are they using the same standard in all jurisdictions?

This evening's news reported that a clinic in Petoskey has begun testing people not previously diagnoses with COVID-19 for antibodies.  Their first round of testing found antibodies in a surprising percentage of 200 subjects (20 or 40%, I don't remember which).  They cautioned us that they need to test way more people before saying this with certainty, but it appears that the virus may not be as deadly as generally believed if that many victims can recover from it without even knowing they had it.

The Michigan legislature voted today to not extend the governor's state of emergency beyond today, when it was supposed to expire.  The governor insists that she doesn't need legislative approval to extend her order, and the legislators have proclaimed that she legally does.  I suppose it will end up in the courts eventually, but what are we supposed to do in the meantime?  Maybe they will tell us more tomorrow.

Cheboygan is still experiencing empty shelf syndrome.  Different stores are out of different products on different days, so it might take two or three trips to town to find everything on your list.  Since our governor seems to enjoy issuing orders, she should order the stores to keep their shelves filly stocked at all times so we can minimize our trips to town and spend more time staying home and staying safe like she wants us to do.  But seriously, I don't know if it's the fault of the stores or their suppliers.  It seems like the panic buying and hoarding should be over with by now, but I don't know that for a fact.  One thing for sure, though, rumors of shortages have a way of becoming self fulfilling prophesies, so don't mention running out of beer, not even in jest.

we don't need no stinking compliance

The Six O'Clock News was a Simon and Garfunkel song.  It had two tracks, one was the six o'clock news itself, bad news from the Vietnam era, and the other track was Silent Night.  I guess the contrast between between the troubled earthly news and the hymn to the savior in the spiritual world was the point of the thing.

In the seventies a crowd of us would gather in front of the tv in the bar for the five o'clock news (time zone thing).  We all hated Nixon and the war, and we would hoot and holler as it looked like Nixon was going down the tubes and the war with him.  When Walter Cronkite (it was always CBS) proclaimed that it was time to withdraw from the war there were cheers and the clanging of beer bottles. 

In those days there were only the three networks. and the fairness doctrine was still in force, and all three networks were pretty much the same and pretty much unbiased since they all sought to appeal to everybody and offend nobody.  Of course we of the left thought they were too conservative and our brethren on the right thought they were too liberal, but all of us would have been shocked indeed to hear any of the networks blandly tell an outright lie.

I've watched the five o'clock news pretty regularly since then.  I tend to skip between them when the one I am watching is covering something I am bored with, but that's okay because I still think they are relatively the same and unbiased,

Trump's briefings used to be in the early afternoon, but then they drifted into the five o'clock slot.  At first the networks thought this would be important news about corona and preempted their programming (in this case the news) to air it, but as it quickly became apparent that it was mainly Trump insulting reporters they began to maybe skim it at the beginning to see if there is anything there and then leave it when it was apparent there wasn't,  Anymore they often don't put it on at all.

This Swedish thing has been in the forefront of the news lately.  It's kind of odd because although they were once vikings they are now viewed as very moral and reasonable, so this is not what we would expect of them.  There is a certain logic to it, bite the bullet and move on, but an awful lot of Swedes are dying. 

I wonder what government numbers Beagles is referring to that Americans don't have confidence in and therefore they aren't complying voluntarily.  And you know Americans are the assholes of the western world, we are generally not voluntarily compliant about anything.  Well actually it seems to me that most of us are at this point (two thirds in polls want to keep the lockdown), but if ten percent don't comply that negates the efforts of the ninety percent who do.

90 dead in Illinois yesterday, not good.  You know what else is not good, so far I in my tower and Beagles in his swamp are coasting pretty easily through this thing, but now it looks like there may soon be a shortage of food, and even beer.. 

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

The Correct Numbers

I've been getting most of my information about the corona situation in Michigan from the TV news.  This is not Fox news, the station I mostly watch is an NBC affiliate that broadcasts out of Traverse City.  The other one is a CBS affiliate that also broadcasts out of Traverse City.  When Trump comes on, I hit the mute button and just read the numbers tracking by on the bottom of the screen.  If Trump  is still on after I've seen the numbers, I go to the other station because they are usually live streaming Trump on their website while doing the regular news on the TV.  I don't have a DVR so, if I miss something, it's gone unless they show it again while I happen to be watching, which is usually only about a half hour a day.  If I seem to be putting a spin on it, that's because I'm trying to make sense out of the information I have and put it into some kind of perspective.

Today they interviewed two Swedish ladies.  The first one was a civilian who happens to be in Michigan at the moment, and the second one works for the Swedish government, I believe she's a member of their parliament.  They both reported that, while Sweden is practicing social distancing, they have not shut down their schools or any of their businesses.  Even the social distancing is not a law, it's just voluntary compliance with government recommendations.  They both said that something like that might not work in the U.S. because Americans are not as prone to voluntary compliance as the Swedes.  They believe that their country in on the right track for the long haul, and that it will be long haul.  The government lady closed with the following statement:  "I know our numbers seem quite high, but they are the correct numbers."  I responded to that with:  "Maybe Americans would be more prone to voluntary compliance if they had more confidence that they were being fed the correct numbers by their government."  But of course she couldn't hear me.


grappling with the facts

I didn't seriously mean that the Michigan reps were seeking to drive up the death toll in order to make the gov, Gretchen Whitmer, we might as well start using her name now that she is widely regarded as veep ,material, look bad, Though I would stick to my guns that she is trying to keep the death toll down which only makes sense because it's in her best interests,.

The idea that she is just doing this in an idle desire to see what she can get away with is ludicrous, like she is some schoolkid swiping a candy bar for the thrill of it. Equally ludicrous I find the idea that the Michigan reps are all in it in defense of some abstract legal principal.  If the gov was a rep and if Trump was for extending the order to eternity they would be clamoring to be the loudest voice in favor of shutting down forever.

But I am just speculating, I am far from the gallant struggle of gutsy Gretchen to save the lives of innocent Michiganders fighting off  horrendous horde of Trumpists who seek only to kiss his golden ring, so I don't know any of the details. Again I am not being (totally) serious here I am just illustrating how if anybody can believe anything they want, they can say whatever they want, and what's the point of discussing anything?.  One really needs to do an analysis, gathering the facts, weighing the sources, testing by hard cold logic, and perhaps most importantly challenging one's assumptions.

I'm having a little trouble with this myself,  I have become a member of the tribe of closers.  Anytime I hear of some opening I get outraged, how dare they, they are threatening not only their lives but mine also, and unflattening the curve so that this whole hateful shutdown will last even longer.  But this is all easy for me, ensconced in my cozy tower above the silent streets with my tv, computer, cats, social security, and state pension living the boring but soft life of Riley.  What of the smiling bartender who served me my last beer a month and a half ago and his ilk who are no longer getting their daily bread and how are they living through this? 

There is a case to be made for opening, and I should not be taking it's proponents as members of the opposite tribe who harbor ill will for my tribe and must be fought for every fucking inch of land.  At some point it will make sense to open.

It just doesn't look like that time is now.  Particularly when we see that those people who are allowed to go to the barber or the beach as long as they are obeying the mask and glove and six feet rules, are not following those rules at all,

I just don't think we are ready yet and am sticking close to my tribe.  And after those five declining days there has indeed been a spike with 132, an all-time high.  Shit fuck.

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Checks and Balances

I don't think that the Republicans in the Michigan Legislature want to "shut down the shutdown", they just want to prevent our governor from unilaterally extending her emergency executive orders indefinitely without legislative approval.  I'm not sure exactly what our governor wants, but she seems to be testing the system to see what she can get away with.  I don't think that either of them want to see the death toll rise just so somebody can or cannot get re-elected.

Speaking of the death toll, Michigan has a population of less than 10 million, while Illinois has a population of over 12 million, yet Michigan is reporting over a thousand more corona deaths than Illinois.  The deaths in both states are concentrated in the urban metro areas, which is to be expected because that's where most of the people are.  Both states began their lockdown about the same time, and the restrictions therein are similar.  Michigan generally has a cooler climate than Illinois, but their  major metro areas are climatically closer to each other than either is to the rest of their states.  Although Michigan may have more poor people than Illinois, we don't know this for a fact.  Somebody should investigate that.

Of course I believe whatever I want.  Doesn't everybody?

tracking the corona

Maybe what your governor is thinking is that if she handles this corona thing poorly a lot more Michiganders will die and she is less likely to win reelection.  That makes sense doesn't it?  I guess it's just natural then to assume that the reps who are trying to shut down the shut down want there to be more deaths so that the gov will lose her election.  So which side do you want to root for?

I mean if you are going to assign motives willy nilly you can believe anything can't you?

There's a lot about this that we still don't know and the scientists readily acknowledge this.  Mainly there is a wide variance in testing so that countries can come up with different numbers, so an anomaly here and there is to be expected.   Beagles appears to be using his usual data analysis which amounts to some guys say this and some guys that, so who can determine the truth so I might as well believe whatever I want.

And though he is no Trumpist his conclusion seems to be the same as Trump, that it is all the fault of China.  Well the reasons differ.  Trump wants to deflect blame from himself and Beagles has hated Red China with a Red Hot hatred since he was in knee pants.  At this point though I have to agree with Beagles that China has been a pretty poor actor in this drama.


Myself I have decided to use one measure only to track this thing and that is daily deaths in Illinois as tracked on wiki.  Cases vary as to how many people are tested.  The more you test the more cases you are going to come up with.  Deaths is pretty certain.  There is a problem of some deaths from corona are not being rung up in that column, but I think that is happening less and less.  Also it's kind of a lagging indicator because people who are dying caught it like two weeks or a month ago, but that's okay because then I can think things are a ;little better than that measure indicates.


2020-04-22
35,108(+6%)1,565(+7%)
2020-04-23
36,934(+4%)1,688(+8%)
2020-04-24
39,658(+7%)1,795(+6%)
2020-04-25
41,777(+5%)1,874(+4%)
2020-04-26
43,903(+5%)1,933(+3%)
2020-04-27
45,883(+5%)1,983(+3%)

Well that copy and pasted pretty well.  The dark red is deaths and the orange is cases.  The numbers on the left are cases and on the right are deaths.  For some reason the numbers are cumulative instead of how many occurred on that day so you have to do a bit of math to find that, which I have done and for the last 5 days deaths have been, 123, 107. 79, 59, and 50 so that looks pretty good, though that doesn't mean there won't be a spike tomorrow.  

Something Fishy Indeed

I don't believe that the whole corona thing is fake, that would be just paranoid, but I do believe that some politicians, and not just Trump, are trying to spin this thing to their own advantage.  I think our governor means well, but she also seems to be using this as an excuse to expand her powers a bit.  You guys know how I feel about the rule of law, and Gretchen seems to have found a loophole.  Whether or not it will stand up in court remains to be seen.  Gretchen knows this so, when faced with a court challenge, she backed down just enough to render the case moot.  Coincidence? I think not!

Then there's the numbers.  I find it hard to believe that the U.S. has had more corona deaths than Red China.  Of course, you can't believe anything those commies say.  But what about Hong Kong?  Last I heard, they were semi-autonomous and were rioting in the streets in an attempt to put more distance between them and the central government.  Well they're not rioting in the streets anymore because the virus hath made cowards of them all.  How convenient for the central government!  Be that as it may, last I heard, Hong Kong, which has approximately 3/4 of the population of Michigan, was reporting only four deaths total, while Michigan was reporting over 200 deaths per day.  A week or so ago it went down to less than a hundred for a few days, and then spiked right back up, admittedly because they had started testing dead people "after the fact".  It occurred to me that I don't know how many people were dying per day in Michigan before the corona hit the fan. Does anybody?

I heard on the TV news this evening that Sweden is not locking down at all.  They figure that this virus is not going away anytime soon, so they'd better find a way to deal with it without wrecking their economy.  They have about the same population as Michigan, but are reporting substantially lower numbers than Michigan is.  The U.K. had a similar plan going, until their prime minister himself came down with a severe case of the virus.  That was three weeks ago, and he's doing much better now and plans to return to work tomorrow.  Funny that the British P.M can recover from a severe case in three weeks, while only 8,000 of the 38,00 cases in Michigan have recovered in twice that time.

After the Brits abandoned their attempt to build a "herd immunity" by letting Nature take its course, they realized that they would need way more test kits than they had, so they bought a couple million of them from Red China.  I am not making this up!  The Reds demanded payment in advance and guaranteed that the tests would be 80% to 90% accurate.  When the tests turned out to be only 40% accurate, the Brits asked for a refund, but I don't think they got one.  Meanwhile, the Germans manufactured their own test kits, enough for every man, woman, and child in Germany, but not enough to share with their E.U. partners.



Monday, April 27, 2020

Too close to home

When the "stay at home" protocols began more than a month ago there were shortages at the local supermarket and many empty shelves.  Toilet paper, of course, but also paper towels, milk, bread, eggs, sugar, and flour were not to be had, at least not at my local store.  But as of last week everything is available as far as I could tell.  Flour was in short supply in the first few weeks but now there is plenty to go around, all-purpose flour in particular.  I don't think I've ever seen bread flour at the local store, I'll have to shop  elsewhere when I run out but that won't be for a while.  How is Mr. Beagles fixed for yeast?  I've read that some stores are running low but yeast is the kind of thing that you can get yourself, plucking it out of the very air you breathe.  And this would be a good time to start brewing your own beer, don't you think?

-----

Last week I learned that my niece tested positive for Covid-19.  Her symptoms were mild, but since she is a nurse she thought a test would be a good idea, and it was.  No big change to her lifestyle; stay at home like everyone else, stay hydrated, and go crazy with the sanitizers.  She should be back at work in a week.

This whole testing business has me a bit confused.  We're supposed to be self-isolating and unless you have severe symptoms (and you'll know when you have them) they'll send you home to recuperate.  The tests aren't that accurate from what I've read; too many false negatives and false positives to convince me of their efficacy.

-----

I'm going to put my tinfoil hat on my head and say there is something fishy about this pandemic, almost like it's a pretext for something else and the data and statistics are being massaged. It's not clear if the deaths are by Covid-19 or with Covid-19; each nation, state, county or governing body seems to have a different method of keeping a tally.  In the US the news seems to be a lot worse than the reality.  Yes, we seem to have the most deaths from Covid-19 but we are only fifth or sixth if you count the deaths per 100,000 people.  Belgium has a real problem, and I don't know why.  Can a virus be selectively contagious?  The truth of the matter is elusive and if there is a better source of information than Johns Hopkins University I'd like to know what it is.

-----

It could be worse, though.  No locusts and we're not downwind of the radioactive smoke from the wildfires in the Chernobyl exclusion zone.  Not yet.

Per the president's recommendation I think I'll go snort some Pine-Sol.  Not as effective as bleach or Lysol but it smells better, not unlike the sylvan glades of Beaglesonia.



week seven

I have to wonder if Beagles is aware of why the gov is keeping the hammer down?  It is to save his life.  Well not just the life of Beagles, but of his hypothetical wife, his child and her children, their friends and neighbors, and all the citizens of the state that looks like a mitten.  Beagles, in the swamp is safer than most Michiganders, but as an old guy he is more at risk.  If somebody squeezed the Charmin before Beagles plucked it off the shelf and he happened to be packing corona, Beagles could pick that up along with his bargain and bring it home to his hypothetical wife, and that could likely be the death of the two of them.  If the guy who squeezed the Charmin had been out partying hardy all weekend he is much more likely to be packing than if he had to buy a couple sixers and watch Netflix all weekend. 

Ike and JFK may have taken some baby steps towards the war in Vietnam, but it was LBJ who got it roaring, and after him RMN who kept it roaring before bugging out.  Towards the end more dems than reps were against it, but there were plenty of pro war dems and anti war reps.  Years later there were some dems voting to impeach Bill Clinton and there were some reps voting against it,  Nothing like that occurred during Trump's impeachment even though his crimes were far worse.  Folks used to watch the evening news which I think Beagles does pretty regularly, and I catch fairly often and it's pretty impartial, but now one side is convinced that they are spewing fake news.  We are much more polarized than we were in the sixties and getting more so every day.

And it seems like the nation's kids will be missing a year of school.  They are doing a lot of computer learning, but take it from a ex-substitute teacher if teach isn't standing over them every second with the proverbial hickory stick, they won't be doing shit.  I wonder if we could insert some app thing where when their minds wander teach could deliver some short little shock to the rapscallions.  No no no, I don't mean that, being alone in a strange classroom, outnumbered by thirty to one makes a savage out of one.  Will this upcoming generation be like one year dumber than the generations before them? 

The seventh week of lockdown commences.  I don't know if that's the right thing to call it?  i just heard the radio say something about shelter in place,, but you don't hear that much anymore.  I just don't know.

And see I have done a whole posting without mentioning Trump suggesting we all irradiate ourselves and mainline Lysol..

Sunday, April 26, 2020

The New Normal

Well, she's done it again.  Before our governor's emergency order could expire, she issued a new order and started counting the 30 days all over again.  I am not a lawyer nor do I play one on TV, but that doesn't sound Kosher to me.  I think the reason for the 30 day limit in the first place was that an emergency no longer qualifies as an emergency after that, but rather becomes the new normal.  Indeed, our governor herself has referred to this corona thing as "the new normal", yet she continues to act as if it was still an emergency.  The legislature needs to get involved, and they are plotting in their smoke filled rooms as we speak, but they won't be able to do anything because the Republicans do not have the 2/3 majority required to over ride the governor's veto.  The next step, then, would be the courts.  According to our local paper, "The prior stay-home order, in tandem with guidance issued by Whitmer's office, prompted lawsuits on behalf of anglers, landscaping companies, cottage owners, and others."  I suppose these cases will now become moot because the old order is no longer operational, having been superseded by the "new" order.  Indeed, the "new" order grants certain concessions to the aforementioned litigants, but I'm sure that the lawsuits had nothing to do with it, Gretchen just granted them out of the goodness of her heart.  Gretchen giveth and Gretchen taketh away.  Blessed be the name of Gretchen.

"I wonder if it will become like a tribal thing, where first people are divided by some issue, and then the issue becomes not so important as being on a side, standing with your people, feeling wronged by the people on the other side, so that eventually the issue isn't even all that important, it's more a case of us vs them." - Uncle Ken
I seem to remember that the country has been like that since the 1960s when Uncle Ken and his ilk took to the streets.  Of course in those days it was a different man that they were trying to stick it to, so it's the same only different.  Trump was elected four years ago largely because somebody else was trying to stick it to the man.  Governor Whitmer was elected two years ago in an effort to stick it to the Trump Man.  Maybe Michigan will go red this year in an effort to stick it to Governor Whitmer.  Not that it will do any good because Trump is incompetent, but it will make us feel better, at least for awhile.

The good news is that I was able to find some flour at the Save-a-Lot the other day.  It wasn't the unbleached bread flour that I prefer, but I made some pretty decent bread with it.  In times like these we all need to make some compromises because, like it or not, we are all in this together.


Friday, April 24, 2020

openers and closers

Yesterday during his conference Trump had one of his toadies present some strange theory of why summer will bring an end to the corona, and he followed that up with suggesting that we irradiate the infected with some kind of super sun gun and/or shoot them up with disinfectants. 

Well I say that those openers parading in front of the state capitals are a motley crew, few in number, half of them brandishing the word of god, or semi automatics, or swastikas.  Last I heard 80 percent of the populace thinks the lockdown is ok, or should go further, and that includes 60 percent of republicans. 

I just checked my corona page and 123 new Illinois deaths.  I thought I had sensed a dip, but that has come and gone.  It does look like a plateau, but who knows how long a plateau can go.  According to the brains very likely quite awhile.  I miss all my classes, my Friday nights, my friends, but I don't want to die.  I guess it's pretty clear right now that we have to keep this up for now, but down the road it won't be so bad, and this isolation will get so hard to tolerate, and the economy will be so tanked that it will look like maybe we can loosen up a bit.

Even though right now the closers have a large majority, way more republicans than democrats favor opening, and I guess that will increase.  I wonder if it will become like a tribal thing, where first people are divided by some issue, and then the issue becomes not so important as being on a side, standing with your people, feeling wronged by the people on the other side, so that eventually the issue isn't even all that important, it's more a case of us vs them. 

Trump is doing an odd straddle.  Well he is not a guy to straddle.  He is all for being all in on something so he can rage against the other side.  In his heart you know he wants to open, his beloved booming economy is in shambles, he can't hold his monster truck rallies.  Surprisingly in his dim recesses he seems to sense that most people are still closers so it might not be wise to go all in for the opening, to cast the brains out of the briefings and go all in with his medal-bedecked toadies.  He has several times tried to bring up The Wall but it just hasn't stuck. 

Here's another odd thing I have heard him championing a few times that also hasn't gotten much traction, the three martini lunch.  Basically the way when the fat cats get together to discuss cutting themselves a bigger slab of the pie and dine and drink like lords and the tab goes towards expenses and against profits and basically the taxpayer picks up the tab.  The taxpayer being Joe Sixpack, because the fat cats never pay taxes anyway. 

Well you wonder why is Trump so all for that, he;s not a three martini kind of guy, but then his empire makes a lot of dough out of that, but I wonder if even that matters anymore.

Thursday, April 23, 2020

Yu Darvish

It wasn't a bad neighborhood, but it certainly wasn't Beaglesonia.

Kind of reminds me of one of my favorite Merle Haggard songs:

I showed her most of Tennessee that's all I could afford
I even thought of stealing so I could show her more
But she never did seem happy and I often heard her say
Hey, I like it here but I love Montego Bay.


He would do anything for this girl but she loves Montego Bay.  He could have moved there with her, but I can't see Merle hanging with the Rastas.  And I reckon that from his days kicking cans down Talman Avenue to the univiyed halls of Gage Park High he dreamed of living where you couldn't see the smoke from his neighbor's chimney, and could doze undisturbed in his blind while Bambi nibbled in the middle ground. 

So it was with me, but when I kicked my can I thought of downtown (where all the lights are bright).  I loved being there, the symphony of the auto horns, the big beautiful tall buildings, the hustle, the bustle.  When I decided that I wasn't going to get out of this city alive so it was time to move out of my parents' attic, I moved downtown. 


There hasn't been any hustle or bustle for over a ,month, but the busses and the trains still run their weekday schedules.  Sometimes just to get out, just to go somewhere when there is nowhere to go, I ride the train to the end of the line and then get on a train going back downtown,  Before the corona riding the train was kind of a hustle and bustle thing, a car full of people getting on and off, likely I couldn't get a window seat, and I didn't pay that much attention to the city gliding by outside the window.

Now there is no problem getting a window seat,  Sometimes I am the only person and at its most crowded there are maybe half a dozen, scattered throughout the car per the new rules.  The city slides by in near silent splendor.  But a little boring sometimes so I bring along an old paperback.


I had a my nose deep in it yesterday when I happened to look up and there, affixed to a brick wall, was a big poster for Marquee.  (Marquee is the brand spanking new Cubs network.  It carries all the Cub games and if you want to see them you have to pay a pretty penny into the gaping maw of the Trumpist owners of the team, and even if you don't, such is the way of cable tv, you have to pay anyway.  The owners were planning on making a killing.  I don't know the details of the contracts but I hope they are taking a huge loss,  Behind the big Marquee logo there was a Cub hurler, and squinting my eyes I could see that it was Yu Darvish.  The Cubs had given him a huge contract in 2018 and he had been a bust, but towards the end of the season he had gotten way better and a month and a half ago Cub tongues were wagging, would he be this year's superstar?  Not anymore of course.

The book I had taken my nose out of was Lyndon Johnson and the American Dream, written 44 years ago by Doris Kearns Goodwin.  Vietnam.  Forty some years in the past and yet the very mention of it takes you right back.  The issue of our generation.  Kind of thought we had won that one, but twenty-five years later we were back at the same old shit in the mideast this time.  A little different, a lot more distant for us, nobody wanted us to fight it, and hardly anybody we knew was going over there, and the press was kept at an arm's length and compared to the mess of Vietnam it was way more muddled and it was still stumbling along when our great hope Obama took the stage and we thought the forces of enlightenment had won, but that never happened, and then Trump, and right on his heels, the way they shoot off everything at the end of the fireworks show, the corona.

Before I was reading LBJ and the American Dream I was reading The Universal Baseball Association by Robert Coover from 1968.  Briefly the guy is some kind of accountant and his life is falling apart around him, but all he cares about is this baseball game he invented ruled by the roll of dice.

Somewhere Yu Darvish is putting on his mask to go for a toilet paper hunt.  On the way out the door he passes the coffee table with the ball nestled in the pocket of the glove.  He moves on.

The Old New Neighborhoods

We had stores like Uncle Ken tells us about back in the Old Neighborhood, and maybe they still do, but I don't live there anymore.  It wasn't a bad neighborhood, but it certainly wasn't Beaglesonia. Uncle Ken must have found something unappealing about the Old Neighborhood because he doesn't live there anymore either.  Since we have both lived in our new neighborhoods a long time, we can't hardly call them our new neighborhoods anymore, so I coined the term "old new neighborhoods".  To my knowledge Trump has not used that term yet and, if he starts using it tomorrow, remember that you heard it first from Talks With Beagles.

Back in my day, the Chicago Loop was a barren wasteland where traffic was bad and there was no place to park.  I understand that conditions there have improved somewhat since then, but I'm pretty sure that it's still not Beaglesonia.  Of course Beaglesonia is not perfect either.  There is nothing within walking distance except my deer blind and our mailbox and even those things seem to get farther away every year.  The Walmart is less than five miles away, most of it on country roads where traffic is not an issue.  I can usually find anything that I want within ten miles and, if I can't, I just order it from Amazon.

The employees at Walmart are just as friendly and helpful as those in the other stores in town, and they all speak English.  The parking lot drains into a small fenced in pond with cattails around the edges.  Most of the other storm drains in town run into the river, but pollution has not been an issue since the storm drains were made separate from the sanitary sewers decades ago.  The sanitary sewers go through a treatment plant before emptying into the Straits, right next to a public beach that, to my knowledge, has never been shut down for water quality issues.  Of course the water is barely warm enough to swim in for only a couple months a year, which might have something to do with it.

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

why i hate walmart and way the term fake news is fake

I don't like Walmart.  There is that thing that Beagles mentioned where they come into a town, drive out all the other businesses and then sometimes they decide it wasn't worth all the bother for that particular puny town and pull out and leave the town destitute having killed off all its independent business.  I guess those businesses could come back since people have to get their stuff somewhere, but maybe they will have gotten into the Walmart habit and start driving to the one in the next town.  I know this will not shine a gentle light on my Americanism, but I don't like driving. 

I don't like cars, I don't like big highways, I don't like those huge hulking parking lots, nothing bu t asphalt for miles and miles, no trees, no weeds, just ugly cars, and when it rains the water does not seep gently into the earth but it picks up automotive waste and rolls it through the countryside, flooding here and there and polluting the rivers when it gets to them,

Well that's another thing wrong with Walmarts even when they don't pull out and leave the town destitute, they are always outside of town because they need those gargantuan parking lots, and so the downtown that you used to be able to walk to, or in the case of bigger towns ride a cozy city bus with your neighbors.  And you would rub shoulders with your townsmen, tip your hat and howdy do, and drop in at Ed's hardware store because Ed was like an old pal of yours and if you didn't know exactly what kind of hinge you needed to fix the screen door, why Ed was happy to sit down and talk to you about it, no trouble young man, glad to be of use, glad to be a vibrant member of a vibrant community.  So much nicer then cruising the gargantuan parking lot hunting for a parking space nearer the door so that you wouldn't have to haul your booty of stuff you didn't really need but you had to get because the price was so low, and those hinges that you have no idea if they are the right ones because the teenager working for less than minimum wage didn't know shit about hinges.

And then there is that thing where one Walmart is just like another Walmart and so one place is pretty much like the next place and you drive miles and miles just to get someplace that is just like the place you just left.  And then there is monopolies.  Remember Teddy Roosevelt, remember trust busting, remember how monopolies were the bane of laissez faire capitalism which is the primal faith of libertarianism? 

So maybe because I really don't like Walmart I remembered Chicago's victory as more sweeping than it actually was, and I probably remember it as being more progressive when it was likely promoted vigorously by local fat cats who just plain did not want competition. 

But I want to say again that my error was in not doing sufficient research and not because I knew better and was trying to pull the wool over anybody's eyes.  You'll notice that the non-Trumpists rarely use the term fake news.  This is because when they call Trump on a lie they explain that what he said was untrue because of this and this and that, whereas when Trump proclaims fake news he gives no explanation, just calls it fake news and moves on to another lie.  I think this is an important distinction and for that reason I think non-Trumpers would be wise to avoid the term.  Except for my esteemed colleagues who I am sure use it only in a mocking reference..

I think that anchor thing is for like shopping centers, where even if a person comes in to buy from your competitor he is stuck at the mall for awhile and may drop in to see what you have to offer.  I don't like shopping centers either, but i won't take that up this morning.

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Fake News and Walonomics

I didn't mean to apply the phrase "fake news" to Uncle Ken's assertion that there were no Walmarts in Chicago.  After reading Old Dog's reply, I figured that it was some kind of joke between the two of them, possibly that Uncle Ken didn't like Walmart so he chose to not recognize their existence.  I also didn't mean to apply the phrase to the You Tube links that Old Dog gave us, since I had not been able to view the videos myself.  I just meant that there is a lot of fake corona news floating around, so one should take anything one hears about corona with the proverbial grain of salt.  Although Trump may have coined the phrase "fake news", or at least introduced it to the contemporary world, I find it to be a catchy phrase that adequately describes the subject.  I know that Uncle Ken doesn't like Trump and, truth be known, I'm not crazy about him myself, but that doesn't mean we need to avoid using a term just because Trump uses it.

I seem to remember reading about a town in the UP, and another one in Texas, that was wrecked by Walmart.  They came in and put everybody else out of business, and then they pulled out, leaving desolation in their wake.  It has occurred to me that might be what our local Walmart is leading up to, but it's only speculation at this point.  There may be a perfectly legitimate reason for their recent behavior, but I don't know what it might be.

We used to have a K-Mart in this town before Walmart came in.  They certainly lost a lot of business to Walmart, but they hung on for a decade or more before they finally closed.  Then there was Glen's Market, now called Family Fare, right next door to Walmart.  Actually, it was the B&C before it was Glen's, and it was the closest thing to a Walmart before the coming of Walmart.  It was one stop shopping for anything you needed, from groceries to clothing to hardware to sporting goods.  After Glen's bought it, they reduced it to just groceries, possibly because they felt they couldn't compete with the new Walmart on all the other stuff.  Then Walmart expanded to include groceries, and the Glen's management advised their employees to start looking for other jobs.  Nevertheless, Glen's is still operating many years later, only now it's called Family Fare like I said.  At some point, a new Walgreens was built right across the street from Family Fare, which was still Glen's at the time.  I didn't think they would make it because Walmart and Glen's sold all of the same things that Walgreens sells, but they're still operating at least a  decade later.  It never ceases to amaze me how a little town like Cheboygan can support all the businesses that it does, since the population of the whole county has not substantially increased since the 1970s.

There is a theory that business begets business.  Northern cities are always looking to attract a big store, which they call an "anchor store" expecting that it will bring in even more businesses.  Remember all the car dealerships that used to be, and likely still are, on Western Avenue?  Then there were the gas stations, sometimes occupying all four corners of an intersection.  We don't see that in Cheboygan, but then we don't have nearly as many intersections as Chicago has.

not fake news, just slothful research

Damn, nailed by Da Scourge again.  I was pretty sure of myself.  I remembered the Walmart wars of 2006 when they made their moves.  Forces in the ghetto wanted them because it was hard shopping in broken down neighborhoods, and because there would be jobs, crappy jobs, but even those looked pretty good in the ghetto.  The city didn't want them because of their habit of driving out other businesses and because they were crappy jobs.  In my memory the city had won, but what had actually happened was that the city allowed them to build some stores if they promised to pay higher wages.  There are now some Walmart neighborhood markets, I seem to remember one as close as Franklin and Division and another around Monroe and Canal, but they are both gone now.  I'm arbitrarily not counting them because they are little bitty things, but there is a Walmart Supercenter by North and Cicero, and a sister by 31st and Cicero.  I almost never go west of Western and they are lost to me and I guess that's why I thought there were none.  My error.  I was wrong and Old Dog was right.

But I'm going to take issue with the phrase fake news.  This term apparently has been around from at


least the turn of the century according to wiki.  It has been newly resurrected by Trump to mean any news he does not like, but the implication is that it is deliberate lies told to mold opinion, and while I will plead guilty to sloth in not checking up (I was pretty sure of myself, but as I myself have said, that is never enough.), I think the term fake news is not applicable.


I am going to venture that at any given time there are hundreds of YouTube videos predicting some kind of doom, but it does not follow that when some kind of doom hits us that the authors of those youtubes or tweets or whatever are prophets.

Monday, April 20, 2020

Fake News and Scams

You Tube is not working for me again.  It was working on Friday, but not on Saturday or today.  I thought I had it solved about three weeks ago, but apparently not.

I have heard that there is a lot of fake coronavirus news going around, and also some scams like people trying to sell you a fake cure or get their hands on your stimulus check.  Of course that doesn't mean that it's all fake, but keep your grain of salt handy.  We generally trust our local NBC and CBS affiliate TV stations.  Of the two, NBC seems to have the more reliable weather reports, so that's the one we usually watch.  They have been running a banner at the bottom of the screen during news hour with the latest numbers and other corona news.  Judging by that, Michigan might be turning the corner, with less than a thousand new cases and less than a hundred deaths per day for the last several days.  Apparently that's what passes for good news in these troubled times.

Like I said, Walmart is like Face Book, everybody complains about it, but they keep going there.  In the case of Face Book, I think everybody goes there because their friends go there.  With Walmart it's because it's relatively cheap and you can often get everything on your list in one store.  The bad part is that, if it's out of stock, they don't know if or when it will be back in stock.  That's the price you pay for the price you pay.  It was about a year ago when they first started showing empty shelf space.  Before that, if they were out of something, they quickly filled that space with a similar product, and they even had whole pallets of stuff in the aisles.  Somebody wrote a letter to the editor about it, claiming that the Walmarts in Petoskey and Charlevoix weren't having any trouble keeping their shelves full, so it must be a Cheboygan thing.  Like I said, it got much worse when the corona hit the fan, and it's not much better yet.  Meanwhile, the Walgreens across the street is advertising three brands of paper products in their sale flier.  I'll have to go there this week and see if they sell flour there.

Moody Monday

Of course we do not allow Walmarts in our great city,...

Fake news, Uncle Ken, unless it is wishful thinking.  Walmart not good enough for you?

-----

Empty shelves haven't been a  problem in the supermarkets I shop at, plenty of everything it seems, even toilet paper.  Speaking of which, a favorite YouTube channel of mine is The History Guy and he has a fine piece on the history of toilet paper.  There was an obscure job in the British Royal Household titled "Groom of the Stool," which would look great on a business card.

-----

There's no shortage of crazy ideas and misinformation about the pandemic and I wonder if anyone  knows what's really going on.  Last November this British guy posted a video about "Disease X" and a pandemic that could wipe out millions, even going so far as to describe symptoms.  Sound familiar?  A couple of days after the video was posted the first case of Covid-19 was announced.  Just watch the first minute or so; it'll make you wonder.  And then I read that our own National Institute of Health was helping finance the Wuhan lab that was studying viruses in bats.  Are we in a global clusterfuck, or what?  A suitable image for our times is the picture of the vultures circling above New York City; they smell death.

Then again, another good image is the sheep bouncing on a trampoline, but I don't have a link for it.



the sixth week of this

These motley crews have been appearing in state houses throughout the country.  A lot of MAGA hats and not a few swastikas and KKK regalia, and brandishing their guns, responding to the rantings of their master and supported by groups supported by the ilk of the Koch brothers.  All of them are small in number and can expect to soon be smaller because they disdain any kind of distancing, and not only will they do themselves in, but also their friends and neighbors and strangers who happen to be unlucky enough to brush by them, and in general prolonging this pain for all the rest of us.

Speaking of pain he has proclaimed that as prez he can do whatever he wants to do, and if he wants to open up states he can do so by declaring I hereby whatever, but then he has decided that he will let each state decide on its own, but then he has called on Michigan, Minnesota, and Virginia to liberate themselves, somehow wrapping the whole thing in the second amendment.

And most lately he is demanding that the states test a lot more people, but he is not allowing the feds to run the testing or even to assist the states in doing it, and when the states retort that there are not enough tests to do so, he refutes that by saying yes there are.

Well it makes sense that at some point this corona thing will abate and it will be time to open things up again/  But reasonable people will have to find a reasonable time and method.  Some will want to do it sooner and some will want to do it later.  Too late and we will have hurt our economy needlessly. and too soon and we will be right back where we were before.  It would be nice if this was determined by a meeting of the minds in some pleasant room with soft chairs and heavy tomes of facts sitting on the coffee tables.  Instead it is being fought out in the Thunderdome led by the maddest of Maxes whose real concern is not the health or the wealth of the state, but of his own glory.


I an curious about the empty shelves for the past year in the Cheboygan Walmart.  I have not witnessed anything like that in Walgreens or Target,  I wonder if this is a Cheboygan thing or a Walmart thing.  Of course we do not allow Walmarts in our great city,, but I notice that friends of mine in smaller cities don't go shopping, they go to the Walmart/  Walmart this and Walmart that, and it seems like it is only when Walmart is out of something that they ever go to any other store to look for it.  Is that the way it goes in Cheboygan?

Friday, April 17, 2020

The Natives Are Getting Restless

Our governor announced today that she is working on a plan to gradually phase out the coronavirus restrictions in stages.  Meanwhile, our legislature is reportedly working on a plan of its own, and I don't think they are consulting our governor about it.  Meanwhile, there seems to be a third plan in the works, and it's not pretty.  I have not heard of anything like that in our neck of the woods, but I don't get around much anymore.

 https://a.msn.com/r/2/BB12NQ0h?m=en-us&referrerID=InAppShare 

As I have said before, I have been practicing my own form of social distancing for years, so my life isn't much different now than it was before.  Right from the start, I was more worried about running out of toilet paper than I was about catching the virus.  We have been seeing empty shelves in our local Walmart for a year or more, although they have been somewhat emptier since the corona hit the fan.  The availability of paper products seems to be slowly returning to normal, but it ain't there yet.  Right now I am trying to find a bag of flour in this town.  A Walmart associate told my wife that they were fully stocked with flour yesterday, and it was all gone by today.  There is plenty of bread on the shelves, so that's not the problem.  I said it yesterday as a joke, but now I'm beginning to wonder if there's some truth to it.  Maybe they are trying to get us used to seeing those empty shelves so that, when the socialism is complete, we won't notice the difference.

I think I was in the first or second grade when I noticed how the east coast of the Western Hemisphere kind of fits into the west coast of the Eastern Hemisphere like two pieces of a puzzle.  Having never heard of plate tectonics in those days, I figured that the continents were afloat on the ocean and that they must have broken in two and drifted apart.  My teacher informed me that the continents did not float on the ocean, and that any similarity between those two coasts was a figment of my imagination.  It seems that she had never heard of plate tectonics either, maybe nobody had.  Turns out I had it right, except for the floating on the ocean part.  I must have been ahead of my time, although now I seem to be behind the times most of the time.  I don't remember ever being right up with the times, but a certain amount of memory loss is normal at my age.


the coming socialist paradise

I brought up Romney in context to reps nationwide.  He is the only national elected rep official who isn't all in the bag for Trump, and hence the only one who isn't a de facto Trumpist.  My comment about the blue states doing better than the red states under the corona because they in general locked down sooner is just a rough estimate.

Right now we are only guessing who has what because the captain of our ship of state didn't want to admit that the ship was sinking because he thought that it might make him look bad, so our testing was, and continues to be, minuscule.

So that's why we don't really know what is going on state-wise.  Some states test more, some less.  A lot of people have died because well it might have been old age or some condition and it might have been corona or it might not have been and some states put them in the corona column and some don't,  We will have to wait until this is over and the clown car of cronies leaves the white house so the government can investigate honestly to find out what really went on.

In the socialist paradise we won't mind losing some of our liberties because we all know that it is in service of our fellow citizens.  And we won't be eating decadent capitalist fare such as Froot Loops, so we will be steadily regular and our poops will leave less residue to be wiped away and we shall require much less toilet paper, so everything will be fine.  And Beagles will not be so grumpy and suspicious because he will be happily married to his gay dog, and will be humming the Internationale https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8EMx7Y16Vo  as he uses his new plowshare, which was once Old Betsy, to prepare the swamp for a fresh crop of beets for his regular morning borscht.


So no interest in plate tectonics?  No interest in that thing with old world cats and new world dogs?  It turns out that eventually the old world collided with the new world via the Bering Straits and that's why we have both in both worlds.  Oh and South America used to be a paradise for marsupials but then the isthmus formed and the placentals rushed down and except for a few species wiped out the marsupials.  Lots of shit going on, old species dying out, no ones popping up as the continents bounce around the globe like slow sodden ping pong balls.  Why are so few people interested in this? 

In the socialist paradise after finishing their morning borscht and wiping their mouths clean with rough dark bread loaded with fiber, and having their immaculate movement and happily toiling for the good of all mankind, folks will settle down and read a good book and will learn all about plate tectonics and the rise and fall of species.

Thursday, April 16, 2020

Politics Gone Viral

While it's true that the Republicans have majority control of our legislature, it is our governor, who is a Democrat, that has been calling the shots with her state of emergency powers.  Not that I blame her for anything, just saying.  Mitt Romney is a member of the US Congress who doesn't even live in Michigan, so he has little to do with our local situation.  I don't know about this "red state blue state" thing.  It is my understanding that the states with large urban populations have been hit the hardest, with New York being the worst and Michigan being number four or five down the list.  Old Dog asked why Michigan has been hit harder than Illinois, and we have both been speculating about it, but I don't think either of us knows the answer for sure.

I have been questioning the numbers, and I found some of the answers in today's newspaper.  It seems that the number of recoveries were first reported last week, and they plan on updating every Saturday, which explains why the number hasn't changed in the last few days.  They count anybody who is still alive 30 days after the onset of symptoms as "recovered", so anybody who was infected before the shutdown should either be recovered or dead by now. These numbers are a couple days old and are rising as we speak: City of Detroit-7004 cases; Oakland County-5,364 cases; Wayne County-5,205; Macomb County-3,620; Genesee County-1,030.  These four counties represent mostly suburban areas around Detroit.  I don't know how their populations compare to Detroit, but it appears that Detroit is the epicenter of the disease.  I suppose a case could be made that poverty is a factor, but that wouldn't explain why the northern rural counties have way less cases than the relatively richer suburban counties.  Okay, we also have way less people than any of the urban or suburban counties, so the poverty argument cannot be totally discounted.  In the last election, the suburbs, which had previously voted Republican, joined with Detroit to elect a Democratic governor.  Make of that what you will.

It has occurred to me that Uncle Ken's socialist paradise might already be upon us, since our civil liberties have been suspended indefinitely and there are empty shelves in the stores.

virtual my ass

If half of Detroit's population was poor and an eighth of Chicago's was poor then Detroit would have more poor people than Detroit.  I don't think that is the actual case, but just illustrating how a bigger city can have less poor people than a poorer one.  Personally I would like to pin Michigan's higher rate on the fact that their house and senate are both in the hands of Republicans which is the same as Trumpists because there is not an elected Republican who does not bow to kiss the orange toe.  Well maybe except for Romney, but he is an odd duck is he not.  In general, except for the glaring example of New York, the blue states are faring better than the red states.  When Beagles starts wondering why it is the way it is perhaps he could accept that explanation, but I expect that he will come up with something more convoluted and more to his liking, involving Them, and likely Mexicans and Black people.

I saw footage of that open up the state demonstration in Lansing, rowdy as a bunch of College kids at Daytona Beach.  You know not only do they endanger their lives, but they also endanger the lives of all the rest of us.

The openers do have a point that locking down is hurting the economy and that will result in deaths by itself, but loosening up before we have defeated the beast is going to be much worse.  We are yet far from it, but there will be some point where we can loosen up a bit, but the lockers and the openers are going to disagree with when that date is, and here will be a situation.  The problem for the openers is that their leader will be Trump who is incompetent and always looking out for his own interests.


Easter is come and gone,  My sister set up a virtual Easter with her and me and one of her sons and our niece and her hubby in California.  Something called duo which I expect is like that zoom that we hear about so much lately.  It was pretty stupid, you saw all these tiny faces on your phones and because everybody was moving around it was dizzying and everybody was glad to hang up after five minutes.  All this virtual crap, let me tell you, it's all a bunch of crap.  Touring a museum, and I love museums, on your computer is not at all like touring an actual museum.  Back before the corona we sneered, and rightly so, at people who had their heads stuck on a screen.  Well maybe it is better than nothing, but there are alternatives, read a book for Chrissake.

But I did get a little hooked on YouTube the other day.  I was reading about the history of cats, and the cats originated in the old world and the dogs in the new,  Well it wasn't exactly like our current old and new worlds because the continents are always shifting around, but that got me to thinking well where were the continents at various times in Earth's history, and I have a rough idea about how tectonics works but I would prefer to be more glib on the subject. 

I went, like I usually do at times like that, to wiki.  But on my path I came across some youtubes and what the hell, I watched them, and they were pretty good, they didn't have a lot of that self-promotion that annoys me so much and animation helps on a fluid subject like plate tectonics.  What they need though is to be more like CDs than cassette tapes so that when you need to go back to clarify something you could go back to a specific chapter and not just hit or miss some arbitrary distance back.. 

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Crunching the Numbers

I find it hard to believe that Detroit has more poor people than Chicago.  Last I heard, Detroit's population was less than one million and Chicago's population was over three million.  If every single person in Detroit was poor, that would still be less than one third the population of Chicago.

I think that Michiganders have been pretty compliant with their governor's orders until just recently.  I saw on the news this evening that a bunch of protestors gridlocked traffic in Lansing for a few hours today, and that's the first I have heard of any kind of push back in this matter.  It seems that some people think that the latest round of restrictions has gone too far.  One example they gave was that the use of motorboats is prohibited while use of canoes and kayaks are allowed.  What the hell has that got to do with anything?  There is certainly no shortage of gasoline in the state.  Demand is down because people are generally staying off the streets as directed, and the price has fallen bellow two dollars in some locations.  I can't remember the last time I saw the price of gas dip below two dollars a gallon.  Others are upset because of the perceived arbitrary manner in which decisions have been made about which businesses are essential.  Small businesses and self employed contractors seem to be getting the worst of it, and they are less likely to draw people into crowded situations than the big stores that have been allowed to stay open.

The number of confirmed cases is now over 28,000 with 2,000 deaths.  What they are not telling us is how many of those cases are still active.  Our news anchors report that they have been trying  to get the number of recoveries for weeks, and it was only last week that the number was finally given as 433, where it remains even unto this day.  I doubt that nobody has recovered since last week, it's more likely that their recoveries are just not being reported.

Of course none of this proves anything, and I never said that it did.  All I've said is that I'm starting to wonder about this stuff, and I suppose other people are too.

tax day

Michigan has more deaths than Illinois probably because Detroit has more poor people than Chicago. Poor people have more health problems and are more likely to die when illness hits.  It also may be that Michiganders are less compliant to the lockdown, or that their medical force is crappier, but I have no reason to think either of those are true.

Social distancing is slowing down the rate of infection.  My daily newspapers are almost exclusively about the corona, as is my cable tv, and my npr.  The news is out there in abundance and Beagles has ample opportunity to access it and find out the answers to his questions, so I'm not going to recap it all for him.  You know how unpleasant I can become when explaining things.

Even among the most virulent never Trumpers I don't hear anybody, not a single soul, saying that Trump caused the corona.  But I'm pretty sure that we all agree that he could have done a lot more to make it less severe if he had listened to the voices of even conservatives, even members of his own administration, screaming hey this is some bad shit going down you ought to do something and he did nothing but say this is no big deal, no worse than the usual flu, probably it will waft away on the summer winds, and a month was lost to the corona.  

And nobody is saying it will go away if we send Trump packing.  This is a peculiar sort of argument Beagles is employing, saying he doesn't believe something, implying that there are others that do when in fact nobody does, sort of like saying you don't believe that two plus two equals five, well nobody else does either so why bring it up?

The reason to dump Trump is because he is a lousy president.  He was a lousy president before corona, and he is even lousier with it because not only is he an extremely repellent lyin sack o shit, but he is also incompetent.

Basically in the face of this dilemma he has done nothing except insult reporters while the governors have done all the work,  Mostly it has been the dems because they don't have to be afraid of Trump like the reps,. but even the reps have gotten on board when they have seen their rates skyrocket.  Now the east and the west coast governors are getting together with each other and planning how they will get their economies rolling again when this fades.  Trump is roaring that he has the authority to tell them when they can do that which of course he doesn't.  He is assembling some board of his toadies to, well who knows what, to stand behind him on the podium while he insults reporters.  

If that sounds like leadership then it only behooves the only member of The Institute who lives in a purple state and therefore has a vote that matters, to cast his vote Trumpward.  If not he could toss away his vote on some dizzy libertarian. 

An inch of snow coming down here, oh and it's tax day.  Haven't even looked at that drawerful of papers in the kitchen.  Well, I've been so busy.   

Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Something in the Water?

I don't know if this was a local thing, but I remember when, anytime two or more visibly pregnant women were in the same room, somebody would say,  "I hear there's a lot of that going around lately, must be something in the water."

It is my understanding that COVID-19 is a respiratory illness that is spread by people breathing each other's air, but I'm beginning to wonder if there is another vector at work here that has been overlooked.  I don't know about their greater metro areas, but I'm pretty sure that Chicago has more people per square mile than Detroit within the city limits.  Furthermore, both Illinois and Michigan started their social distancing efforts about the same time, so Illinois should have more cases than Michigan, but it doesn't.  Why do you suppose that is?

Another thing is that everybody says social distancing is working, but the numbers keep rising every day.  In Michigan, the rate of increasing has increased every day but one.  Although a certain amount of surge was to be expected, it seems that should have petered out by now.  It must take the virus a week or two to incubate because people who might have been exposed are told to quarantine themselves for 14 days.  If you haven't developed symptoms by then, they figure that you must not have it.  Now that we have been social distancing for over a month, it seems that everybody who had the bug before the hammer came down should have been identified by now.  While nobody has claimed that social distancing was a perfect solution, it was supposed to slow the spread of the virus not accelerate it.

I'm not one of those paranoid freaks who believe that everything bad is caused by some evil conspiracy, at least not anymore, but I can't help wondering if there is something going on here that we don't know about.  Maybe nobody knows about it, or maybe somebody does and they're not telling us.  While Trump undoubtedly could have handled it better, I find it hard to believe that he caused the whole thing all by himself, or that merely voting him out of office in November will make it go away all by itself.

will there be pants in the postpandemic?

Oh I like that, the automobile parked on the ice.  Like Old Dog I was sure that alcohol must be involved, but I wasn't sure how, but then I realized that to track the exact date and time somebody had to be watching all the time.and what better activity to add merriment to what would otherwise have been a pretty boring mission than to pass around the bottle.  I was going to say count me in but I think I would prefer a cozy tavern. 

Or at home, but I think /I would prefer to keep my pants on.  I think I get the metaphor, if you are in your underwear you are one step further (putting on your pants) from going outside and doing something else, and there is a sense in it of let it all hang out which goes well with boozing, but for my part I will keep my pants on thank you, just the way my mother raised me, thank you.

I don't know exactly what the Hamptons are, or why there are more than one of them, but that's where the wealthy New Yorkers go, and from what I read half the city is empty because that's where their neighbors are hunkering out the pandemic, and none of the Hamptonians are any too happy to have them bringing their germs and wiping their butts on their meager supply of toilet paper.  I can't say for sure how many tower residents have left. A surprising number of them have second homes but they are all winter homes and all the ones I know about are in the sunny south, where until just lately you could gambol freely with the natives, and probably if in the process you tossed your pants to the wind, well it beats sitting on the bank of some frozen lake watching for a car to fall through.

I think Detroit is the reason that Michigan is per capita ahead of Illinois in corona deaths.  Chicago is way in debt and not all that flush, but like we like to say here, at least we ain't Detroit (yet).

For some reason (because ante sounds like past to me) I always that antebellum referred to after the war.  Well clearly I wasn't paying much attention because does not the very word antebellum sound like taffeta hoop skirts skittering along marble floors while the lovely belle fans herself with short fluttering motions to match her eyelids .and declaims "Well I do declare, Mistuh Butler."  They never talk about postbellum but I think that would be whatshername in her torn gown standing in the mud and declaring that she will never be hungry again. 

Right now antepandemic brings welcome memories of tossing tales and brews with old pals at the convivial bar or even just stuffing your face with a large order of bbq pork rice in a local fastfood.  Postpandemic could possibly be the socialist paradise i wrote about n my last post.  Likely more like Mad Max because gas will be really cheap.

Anybody got there $1200 yet?  Any plans for it?

Monday, April 13, 2020

That's a Good Question

"I don't know how long Illinois has been in self-isolation compared to Michigan but I find it odd that Michigan has significantly more cases and deaths (per one thousand residents) than Illinois, about fifty percent more the last time I checked.  That's quite a difference and I wonder why; maybe my sources are in error." - Old Dog

I don't know when it started in Illinois, but Michigan's governor declared a state of emergency about a month ago.  The first week she closed the schools, the restaurants, and the bars.  The second week she closed all "non-essential" businesses and prohibited "un-necessary" travel.  I think the whole thing was supposed to last 30 days and was set to expire tomorrow.  Last week she asked the legislature to extend it for seven more weeks, but they voted to extend it only till the end of April.  About the same time, she issued a new order and seemed to imply that the 30 days should start all over again, but she set the new order to expire at the end of April, same as the legislature.  We only had two cases in the state when the first order was issued, and now we have around 26,000, with over a thousand deaths.  They just started reporting recoveries yesterday and last I heard, there were 433 of those.  The vast majority of cases and deaths are in the southern half of the Lower Peninsula, with Detroit being the epicenter.  I think all the rural northern counties have reported at least one case by now, with Otsego County, our neighbor to the south, having the most cases, 31 by last count.  The latest total for Cheboygan County is 12 cases and one death.

The second order laid some new restrictions on us.  Michiganders who have more than one home within the state are not allowed to travel between them.  I think that means they have to stay put wherever they were when the order was issued.  People whose primary residence is outside of the state are allowed to go there once and stay there, and people whose primary residence is in Michigan, but were out of the state when the order was issued, are allowed to come home and stay there.  There were also some additional restrictions placed on the businesses that have been allowed to stay open. They must limit the number of customers allowed in the store at one time to 20% of the store's rated capacity, and they must rope off the parts of the store that sell "non-essential" items, although I understand that the rules about that might vary depending on the size of the store.  

I went to Family Fare today to get some beer and a few items that we couldn't find in the other two stores. They still have some empty shelves, but they do have a small amount of TP and other paper products.  I was surprised to see that that they were out of flour again or still, having bought the last two bags when last I was there a month ago.  Walmart has some flour, but not the kind I like (unbleached).  I didn't go down the bread aisle, and my wife didn't either when she went to Walmart last Friday, so we don't know whether or not bread is in sort supply like it was Down Below until recently.  People are taking the six foot rule seriously now, and more of them are wearing masks. 

My daughter and grand daughter have always shown an interest in my stories, as I have in theirs. 



A sunny Monday

Back in the days when I worked in the office we used to run sort of a pool as to when the first 70 degree day would appear.

As I recall, there was a rural equivalent north of here in either Wisconsin or the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.  The locals would take an old automobile, a non-functional beater most likely, and park it in the middle of a frozen lake.  Wagers would be made about the date and time the car would fall through the ice but I don't know what kind of prize the winner got.  This sounds like the kind of mirthful activity that happened in many locales up north, and I'm sure alcohol may be involved.

Mr. Beagles mentioned that some of the homes in the Cheboygan area are second homes, owned by "outsiders" for vacation purposes.  I read that there has been backlash against this type of owner in the state of Maine, with the locals up in arms (almost) against the interlopers seeking refuge against the pandemic.  Anything like that happening up there, Mr. Beagles, or all welcome to join in as long as the Walmart stays open and fully stocked?

I don't know how long Illinois has been in self-isolation compared to Michigan but I find it odd that Michigan has significantly more cases and deaths (per one thousand residents) than Illinois, about fifty percent more the last time I checked.  That's quite a difference and I wonder why; maybe my sources are in error.

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Once again the Finns are way ahead of the curve.  For many years they've been practicing the activity of staying at home and drinking, without wearing any pants.  They have a word for it, too, but I don't recall it offhand; it's in the link.

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It's bad enough that we have to be obsessive hand-washers, now I've read that the virus can stick to the bottom of your shoes.  This is new info, much to the dismay of health workers, first responders, and just about everybody I guess.  What a world we live in.

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A belated Happy Easter to all as we await our personal resurrections from this grave situation.  What should we be calling this time of our lives?  Pre- and Post-Pandemic?  Or maybe just a smaller part of the chaotic Trump Era?


speculating

Monday the 13th.  The last 13th was that Friday in March when I was slapping backs at the Ten Cat with only a nagging worry on my mind.  We've had the lowest rate of deaths in about a week, and there does seem to be a plateauing, which is good news, now if we can see it start dropping a bit.  Too soon to be loosening anything, but maybe it's light at the end of the tunnel.  At the end of the month we may be reassessing. 

October 29th, 1929 was Black Tuesday.  Fortunes were lost, and the accounts of stockbrokers jumping off ledges is probably way overblown, but it's a nice metaphor, so let it stay.  My dad graduated from college and was lucky to get a job digging ditches.  Digging ditches, the phrase loomed through my childhood.  When I wanted some little plastic bauble I would be reminded of the depression when my dad had a job digging ditches.  And right now I have to wonder what ditches where and how long.  Why did I never ask my mother when she was in the assisted living. and I'd come by Fridays around suppertime and wheel her from one end of the building to the other, and stop before some floor to ceiling windows that looked out on a little park, and we'd have a little chat, why didn't I ever ask her about that?  My story and Old Dog's story will go down with us, but Beagles has at least two generations to come after him.  Do they ever ask him about his past?  Will they sit still while he tells them? 

Well I've gone far afield again, maybe something to take up later.  Didn't we recently take up the issue of earliest memories?  I think maybe we dropped it too soon.

When I brought up the subject of Black Tuesday, I meant to contrast it with the day before when folks had a nice breakfast and Dad went to his nice job while Mom tended to her nice house and the kiddies, and then Dad drove his Model T home and they had a nice supper and at night asked the good lord for nothing more than another day just like the one that had just passed.  Those golden waves of grain, those sprawling factories, and the raw materials in the mines still existed on September 30th, much as they had on the 28th, so what is wrong here.?  This was the real stuff. Money, as we all know, is just voodoo stuff, so how come the stuff that was real didn't mean anything and the unreal stuff that had just went poof was all that mattered? 

Surely some revelation was at hand, not the second coming, as the poet contended, but the New
Deal, grinning Franklin Delano with the jaunty cigarette holder and the hidden braces.  Our gimcrack economic system where all the dough goes to guys who fiddle with money while Joe Sixpack is struggling with minimum wage, did not cause the corona, but corona is shining a light on it, and now that so many are dependent on the government maybe it is time for an, ahem, rearrangement.  Well just the purest speculation, but these days on the precipice are the time for speculation.

Sunday, April 12, 2020

Some Encouraging Signs

Remember I told you about how Walmart was limiting the number of customers allowed in their store at once?  Well it seems our governor heard about it and made it part of her executive order for all stores, only she decreed it would be four instead of five people for every thousand square feet of floor space.  I went to Save-a-Lot yesterday and saw a sign on the door to that effect, but I didn't see anybody counting customers going in or out.  Some people were wearing masks, but I don't think it was the majority.  The shelves were pretty well stocked, including the meat section.  They even had toilet paper!  It was that cheap generic stuff like what my wife brought home from Walmart, but there were packages of 24 tiny rolls instead of just four.  I picked up one package, which should be enough to tithe us over till we can find our usual brands on the shelves.  I found out later that Walgreens has enough of the stuff on hand now that they are actually advertising it (buy one, get another one at half price).

We know a guy who lives Down Below, and he told us that their stores were running out of bread awhile back, so he bought some yeast and started making his own bread.  Then they ran out of yeast but, when he went to the store a few days ago, they had an ample supply of bread, yeast, and toilet paper.

Our local TV news reported this evening that today was the first day since the crisis began that Michigan had fewer new cases and deaths than the day before.  It's too soon to tell if the corner is being turned, but it's still an encouraging sign.  They also said that over 400 people have been officially declared recovered from the disease in the state.  Cheboygan County has not reported any new cases or deaths in the last several days, leaving us with a total of ten cases and one death so far.

Of course the fat lady has not sung yet, but maybe she is practicing scales in her dressing room as we speak.

 


Friday, April 10, 2020

Hunkering Down

Our lives haven't changed that much with this lockdown.  ( Our governor calls it her "Stay Home, Stay Safe" order. )  We seldom left home before except to shop for groceries and other supplies.  Almost every trip we made to town would qualify as essential, and still does.  The only other thing was to occasionally visit our daughter in Charlevoix or our grand daughter, who recently moved from nearby Levering to Petoskey.

My wife went to Walmart today and there was no line or anybody stationed at the door counting people.  More people were wearing masks than last week, but certainly not the majority.  They were out of some things on her list, but that's been happening since long before this virus thing got started. She picked up another package of four little tiny rolls of generic toilet paper, the last one on the shelves.  Our TP supply is lasting longer than expected, but I still want to get some more before it gets dangerously low.  We also need some meat and other stuff, so I will probably make a run to town tomorrow, even though it's the last nice weather day in the seven day forecast.  I'm not complaining, you understand, it could be worse.  We could be living in Maine or Upstate New York where they are getting 12-18 inches of snow as we speak.