tracking the corona

Maybe what your governor is thinking is that if she handles this corona thing poorly a lot more Michiganders will die and she is less likely to win reelection.  That makes sense doesn't it?  I guess it's just natural then to assume that the reps who are trying to shut down the shut down want there to be more deaths so that the gov will lose her election.  So which side do you want to root for?

I mean if you are going to assign motives willy nilly you can believe anything can't you?

There's a lot about this that we still don't know and the scientists readily acknowledge this.  Mainly there is a wide variance in testing so that countries can come up with different numbers, so an anomaly here and there is to be expected.   Beagles appears to be using his usual data analysis which amounts to some guys say this and some guys that, so who can determine the truth so I might as well believe whatever I want.

And though he is no Trumpist his conclusion seems to be the same as Trump, that it is all the fault of China.  Well the reasons differ.  Trump wants to deflect blame from himself and Beagles has hated Red China with a Red Hot hatred since he was in knee pants.  At this point though I have to agree with Beagles that China has been a pretty poor actor in this drama.


Myself I have decided to use one measure only to track this thing and that is daily deaths in Illinois as tracked on wiki.  Cases vary as to how many people are tested.  The more you test the more cases you are going to come up with.  Deaths is pretty certain.  There is a problem of some deaths from corona are not being rung up in that column, but I think that is happening less and less.  Also it's kind of a lagging indicator because people who are dying caught it like two weeks or a month ago, but that's okay because then I can think things are a ;little better than that measure indicates.

2020-04-22		​ ​	35,108(+6%)	1,565(+7%)
2020-04-23		​ ​	36,934(+4%)	1,688(+8%)
2020-04-24		​ ​	39,658(+7%)	1,795(+6%)
2020-04-25		​ ​	41,777(+5%)	1,874(+4%)
2020-04-26		​ ​	43,903(+5%)	1,933(+3%)
2020-04-27		​ ​	45,883(+5%)	1,983(+3%)

Well that copy and pasted pretty well.  The dark red is deaths and the orange is cases.  The numbers on the left are cases and on the right are deaths.  For some reason the numbers are cumulative instead of how many occurred on that day so you have to do a bit of math to find that, which I have done and for the last 5 days deaths have been, 123, 107. 79, 59, and 50 so that looks pretty good, though that doesn't mean there won't be a spike tomorrow.