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Wednesday, June 10, 2020

The Lockdown

I never said that the lockdown wasn't effective in slowing the spread of the virus, I just said that it was an emergency stopgap measure that was not sustainable as a long term solution.  The Spanish flu epidemic (the word "pandemic" hadn't been invented yet) of 1918 lasted for two years, and you can't shut down the global economy for two years.  The states that have been opening prematurely probably figure that the point has come where the lockdown is doing more harm than the virus.  It's even worse in the third world countries where many people live hand to mouth and there is no safety net.  They have no choice but to let their people make a living any way they can.

The issue with our Michigan governor is different.  Shortly before our legislature declined to extend the state of emergency, she issued several new edicts that were of questionable value like shutting down golf courses, landscapers, construction jobs, and motorboats.  This generated lawsuits from the affected parties, which resulted in the new restrictions being lifted.  At that time, we were getting around 200 deaths a day, and now we're down to two dozen.  While this thing has improved, it is far from over.  I expect that some restrictions will need to remain in place for a long time, maybe forever.  Our governor needs to work with the legislature to come up with sustainable tactics that people can live with, but I don't see that happening any time soon.  What I think will happen is that people will get tired of living like this and drift away from it little by little until the governor's orders are nullified by popular apathy.  What effect this will have on the virus remains to be seen.

The info on Occam's Razor was helpful, but I still don't know why it's called a razor.


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