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Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Projections

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_overpopulation#Projections_of_population_growth

As I expected, Wiki has a whole lot of information about this subject.  I narrowed it down to this because it addresses the point that Old Dog raised yesterday:
"But I don't understand Mr. Beagles' supposition that we are in danger of excess population.  The information I've found indicates that we will hit a max of ten billion people by the year 2100, at which point the population will remain stable,  Birth rates are dropping around the world and even China, due to its former one-child policy, may find itself with a population shortage."

According to Wiki, there is considerable variation in these projections, and I suppose that the one Old Dog read about is about as good as any one of them.  Birth rates may indeed be dropping around the world, but this doesn't mean the global population is declining, it just means that the global rate of growth is slowing down, and it's not slowing down uniformly all over the globe.

"Almost all growth will take place in the less developed regions, where today's 5.3 billion population of underdeveloped countries is expected to increase to 7.8 billion in 2050. By contrast, the population of the more developed regions will remain mostly unchanged, at 1.2 billion. An exception is the United States population, which is expected to increase by 44% from 2008 to 2050.[298]" - From the Wiki link

It doesn't say so in so many words, but I think the expected population increase in the U.S. will mostly be attributed to immigration.  As I have said previously: Why should we, who have done the right thing, pay the price for other people's irresponsible conduct?

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"I have my suspicions about the sophistication and wit of Cheboyganers, but I will wager that the great majority of them are gun nuts." - Uncle Ken

How unscientific to judge an entire population when you are only acquainted with one of its members!  We have a restored 19th Century opera house in Cheboygan you know.  They use it for other things of course, but they do put on a real opera once or twice a year, and I have attended several of them myself.  I seem to remember that Chicago has several venues for operas and classical music concets, and at least one of them must be within walking distance of Marina City.  Have you ever attended any of them?

I don't know what percentage of Cheboyganites own one or more guns, but I doubt that it's the great majority of them.  Furthermore, I'm pretty sure that the great majority of gun owners in Cheboygan are law abiding citizens.  If that's what you call a "gun nut", then so be it.  Better to be a gun nut than a former car nut who doesn't even know the difference between a Ford and a Chevy.  Don't feel bad about that, I understand that a certain amount of memory loss is normal at your age.



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